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US President Donald Trump is not one to mince words, and he certainly didn’t hold back in defense of the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) against critics.
Through his Truth Social account, Trump lambasted state-level actors who contend that prediction markets are no different than sports betting platforms and should be regulated as such.
The ongoing turf war between the CFTC and state regulators has escalated in recent days, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz signing a prediction market ban into effect. The CFTC swiftly sued for a preliminary injunction to prevent the law from going into place.
A public win for the CFTC amid onslaught of litigation
The CFTC has been under fire since the explosion of the prediction market industry. The spotlight only got brighter after well-timed contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket resulted in nearly a million dollars of winnings on the removal of Nicolas Maduro and airstrikes against Iran.
US Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who participated in the operation to capture Maduro, netted nearly $400,000 on Polymarket contracts. Van Dyke was arrested and charged by the Department of Justice in April.
Since those events, an avalanche of lawsuits has landed in the laps of prediction markets, and many states are developing legislation to rein them in or outlaw them entirely.
Trump’s public message in support of the CFTC and its chairman, Michael Selig, comes at a time of intense scrutiny of the agency’s ability to successfully oversee and regulate an exponentially growing industry.
Trump maintains deep ties to the prediction market industry
Trump’s strong defense of the CFTC is not surprising, as the president and his family have maintained a very cozy relationship with the prediction market industry.
Donald Trump Jr. has been an advisor to Kalshi since January 2025 and also serves as an advisor to Polymarket through his company, 1789 Capital. Then company holds an estimated t$10 million of dollars in the company.
In addition to family ties to the two largest prediction market operators, the Trump Organization last October announced Truth Predict, its own proprietary prediction platform. While there is no timeline for the application’s launch, it will require approval and oversight from the CFTC.
