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Gaming Edge’s TL;DR
- Prediction markets generated $156 million in the second quarter, Robinhood reported.
- That topped its $100 million in crypto trading revenue for the first time.
Robinhood said prediction markets and event contracts generated $156 million in Q2 2026, surpassing its $100 million in crypto trading revenue for the first time as the company posted a record $1.31 billion in total net revenue.
The result shows how quickly federally regulated event contracts are becoming a major retail trading business in the US, even as the legal fight over whether those products are derivatives or gambling continues.
Robinhood said total net revenue rose 32% year over year in the quarter, while diluted earnings per share reached $0.62, above Wall Street consensus. The company also said event contracts traded hit 13.6 billion in the quarter, more than 10 times Q2 2025 volume.
Crypto revenue fell 38% year over year
A key part of that growth is Rothera, Robinhood’s CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse launched in June through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Robinhood assembled Rothera by acquiring MIAXdx in January, giving it a designated contract market, designated clearing organization, and swap execution facility.
At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in May, Robinhood Markets VP of Finance Shiv Verma said, “Control of the whole product and engineering, you also control the better economics.”
The quarter marked a sharp shift in Robinhood’s transaction mix. While prediction markets and event contracts brought in $156 million, crypto trading revenue fell 38% year over year.
Bernstein analysts called prediction markets “the largest incremental driver of transaction-based revenue growth” and projected $586 million in full-year 2026 revenue from the category. Robinhood had already confirmed $260 million in prediction market revenue through the first two quarters of the year.
Robinhood also said Rothera processed more than 3.5 billion contracts from its June launch through the end of Q2. Tech Times pegged Rothera’s approximate Q2 prediction market notional volume at $2.1 billion.
CEO Vlad Tenev said Robinhood now operates across 13 business lines that each generate more than $100 million in annualized revenue.
Based on reporting by Adrian Parham for Tech Times.
