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Citing a slower-than-expected start to the year, sports betting giant BetMGM has reduced its revenue projections for 2026, pointing to “player-friendly” outcomes and a surge in marketing costs driven by emerging competitors.
BetMGM adjusts 2026 expectations
In a business update released April 14, the operator reported that net revenue in the first quarter reached $696 million, a 6% increase from the same period in 2025. While the company saw a 9% jump in iGaming, its online sports betting(OSB) revenue grew by a more modest 4%.
The company now expects full-year 2026 revenue to land between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, a slight downward revision from its previous forecast of $3.2 billion.
iGaming surges, sports betting softens
BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt emphasized that despite the revision, the company’s underlying transformation remains on track.
“Although it has been a steady start to the year, BetMGM is delivering on our strategic plan,” Greenblatt said. “We are generating sustainable, profitable growth and paying cash to our parent companies. Our iGaming business is growing at scale, and our online sports business continues to strengthen despite a challenging market in Q1.”
Greenblatt noted that the company remains focused on its “areas of strength,” including multiproduct states and its omnichannel presence in Nevada, as it stays the course toward a target of $500 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2027.
How prediction markets are driving up CPAs
A significant factor in the revised outlook is the “meteoric growth” of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Greenblatt addressed this trend directly during the earnings call, noting that these platforms are increasingly encroachingon traditional sports betting territory.
“They call themselves prediction markets, and they are buying sports betting keywords as well as throwing money at any sports media property that will take it,” Greenblatt said. He added that these platforms are bidding up the cost of customer acquisition and, in some cases, offering a “sportsbook mode” to lure traditional bettors.
Flutter and FanDuel signal similar cooling
BetMGM isn’t the only operator feeling the squeeze. FanDuel parent Flutter recently adjusted its own 2026 outlook, forecasting an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.97 billion amid similar market moderations and a 4% growth rate in specific segments.
Can iGaming carry BetMGM through 2026?
The downward revision highlights a shifting landscape in the U.S. gambling market. As traditional sportsbooks face higher marketing costs and the rapid expansion of prediction platforms, the remainder of 2026 will likely be defined by a battle for market share and a heightened focus on the high-margin iGaming sector to offset fluctuations in sports results.
