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The 2026 FIFA World Cup continues to dominate Kalshi’s prediction markets as the knockout stage begins this weekend, with millions of dollars flowing into both individual matchups and the tournament winner market.
While soccer remains the biggest story on the platform, traders are also beginning to shift their attention toward The Open Championship later this month.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest markets to watch and how prediction market sentiment has evolved heading into a busy holiday weekend.
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Argentina vs. Cape Verde
Argentina remains one of the strongest favorites of the knockout round, with the market giving the defending champions an 89% chance to advance compared with just 11% for Cape Verde. What stands out is not simply that Argentina is favored, but how little sentiment has shifted over the past several days.
After an early jump following the market’s opening, Argentina’s probability has remained remarkably steady in the high-80% to low-90% range, suggesting traders view this as one of the least competitive Round of 16 matchups. Cape Verde has seen only a modest uptick late in the week, climbing to 11%, but the move has done little to materially change expectations.
With nearly $4.8 million already traded, the market reflects strong confidence that Argentina will advance comfortably barring a major upset.
Australia vs. Egypt
Australia and Egypt have emerged as one of the more competitive Round of 16 matchups, though traders have gradually leaned toward Egypt as the favorite. Egypt currently holds a 56% chance to advance, while Australia sits at 44%, with the gap widening slightly during the past several days.
The market has been relatively stable overall, but Egypt has consistently maintained the upper hand after briefly dipping before regaining momentum heading into the weekend. Australia saw a modest rally around June 29 that temporarily narrowed the spread, but that optimism faded as traders once again backed Egypt.
With roughly $464,000 traded so far, this market has attracted significantly less attention than some of the tournament’s marquee matchups, leaving room for sharper movement if team news or broader betting sentiment shifts before kickoff.
FIFA World Cup Winner
The outright World Cup winner market remains one of Kalshi’s biggest attractions and has become increasingly active as the tournament progresses. With nearly $800 million already traded, it is among the platform’s highest-volume markets.
Unlike individual match markets that resolve after a single game, this market evolves throughout the entire tournament, with every result, injury, and upset reshaping the odds.
France has been the biggest mover this week, climbing to 34.5% to win the World Cup after gaining more than five percentage points as traders continued backing the tournament favorite. Argentina, despite remaining one of the top contenders, slipped to 19.1%, while Spain moved down slightly to 9.2%.
Those rankings are far from settled. Every knockout victory has the potential to dramatically reshape the championship picture, and traders will likely continue reacting aggressively after each round. As the field narrows, volatility tends to increase because every remaining match carries significantly greater weight.
It is one of the few prediction markets that continues building momentum deep into the tournament, making it worth following even for traders who are not participating in every individual match market.
Brazil vs. Norway
Brazil enters the match against Norway as a clear favorite, with the market giving the five-time World Cup champions a 66% chance to advance compared to 34% for Norway.
Unlike some of the tighter knockout matchups this weekend, traders have shown little hesitation backing Brazil, and the odds have remained relatively stable since the market opened. After an initial adjustment, both sides have traded within a fairly narrow range, suggesting there has been little significant news or sentiment shift capable of altering expectations.
With nearly $500,000 already traded, this market has attracted solid interest and could see additional activity closer to kickoff. Norway has enough quality to threaten an upset, but current market sentiment suggests traders believe Brazil’s experience and tournament pedigree should be enough to secure a place in the quarterfinals.
The Open Championship Winner
While the World Cup continues to dominate prediction market activity, golf bettors are beginning to turn their attention toward The Open Championship, which tees off later this month.
The outright winner market has already attracted nearly $4.8 million in trading volume and is expected to become increasingly active as the field finalizes and bettors weigh recent form against course history.
At the top of the board, Scottie Scheffler remains the clear favorite with a 15% chance to win the Claret Jug. His odds have remained relatively steady during the past week, reflecting continued confidence that the world No.1 is still the player to beat despite the volatility that typically defines major championships.
Rory McIlroy sits second at 9.9%, though his probability has slipped slightly as traders have grown more cautious following recent performances. Tommy Fleetwood rounds out the top three at 5.8%, remaining firmly in the conversation as a player many bettors believe is well suited for links conditions.
With roughly two weeks remaining before the tournament begins, expect the market to become increasingly volatile as practice rounds, injury updates, weather forecasts, and public betting sentiment begin influencing prices. Unlike single-match markets, outright golf winner markets typically experience gradual movement before the opening round and even sharper swings once play begins.
