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Bob Christ's super bowl breakdown February 03, 2012 3:31 PM by Bob Christ

SUNDAY, Febuary 5

The New York Giants just completed a startling three-game run through the NFC playoff jungle with a 3-0 mark ATS. En route they flustered the conference’s top two seeds as a road underdog.

By contrast, the New England Patriots enjoyed a first-round bye and home playoff wins over underdogs Denver and Baltimore.

Anyway, what’s to make of the Giants? Are they a dynamic force careening downhill or a physically and mentally exhausted bunch after climbing Super Bowl Mountain.

Since 1997, momentum has trumped fatigue. The nine previous squads that went 3-0 ATS in the playoffs via the long route to the Super Bowl went a cumulative 8-0-1 ATS (6-3 SU) in the title game, including the Giants’ 17-14 upset of the perfect Patriots four years ago as a 12½-point underdog.

Now for a closer look at Sunday’s games:

Giants (12-7) vs. Patriots (15-3)

Time: 3:29 p.m. PT

Line: Patriots by 3 (54 OVER/UNDER)

(2½ in a number of Vegas books)

Facts: The Giants are the first team in history to get this far despite being outscored during the season. Twice they lost to (gasp!) the 5-11 Redskins. Then again, in 1995 Dallas was swept by a 6-10 Washington team but still was Super. The 2001 Patriots won rings despite being outgained 29.8 yards a game, the worst margin for a team that ever even reached a title game. They were +17.9 this year.

Analysis: NE ringmaster Bill Belichick has won three titles, but he’s been no genius in head-to-heads with NYG boss Tom Coughlin, going 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS), including the Pats’ late Super meltdown four years ago. Coughlin’s first-year Jaguars even beat Belichick’s Browns in 1995 as 13½-point underdogs. Not to mention Belichick is only 10-15-2 ATS with an extra week to scheme (Coughlin 9-8-1). So, why not to take a Giants team that gave NE its lone home loss this season?

Forecast: Giants 34, Patriots 21

Season totals:

135-121-9 ATS (.527)

155-110 straight up (.585)

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