HOT Stories more

Dennis Gomes chosen for induction into Gaming Hall of Fame

Article
‘Expertly’ detouring around bad strategy December 13, 2011 3:00 AM by Elliot Frome

Last week’s column was a gambling related philosophical debate about perfect vs. good enough. This week, I’m going to the other end of the spectrum.

It is nearly impossible to define a "bad" strategy as there really is no end to how bad a player can play most games. Playing every hand in Three Card Poker would probably meet the definition of a bad strategy, but is it worse than folding every hand below a pair?

Probably not, and I’m not going to waste my time to try to find out.

This is not to say every strategy that isn’t perfect, or per last week’s column "good enough," would necessarily meet the definition of "bad." I don’t consider playing Three Card Poker with the strategy of play any hand with a queen to be good enough, but I can’t really call it a bad strategy either.

With a game like Three Card Poker, there isn’t really much to learn so draw your line in the sand where you do and that’s how to play it.

A game like video poker is far different. For anyone who doesn’t use Expert Strategy, you might be hard pressed to find two people who used identical ones. In reality, they may be trying to use Expert Strategy (or some other particular strategy) but due to its complexity, they make a variety of errors along the way.

Then there are the multitudes of players who just play by the seat of their pants, pretty much oblivious to the math that should be guiding them. To these players, getting them to even good enough will be quite a challenge.

But, no matter what level they play at, if they just learn a few simple strategy points that might help them get a little closer to Expert Strategy, it is at least a step in the right direction. So, today’s column is for these players.

I would like you all to consider learning just this small part of the strategy and trying to implement it. You may still be a long way away from playing expertly, but hopefully, we can save you just a few bucks along the way and add to your enjoyment, too.

Here goes:

1) High Pair

2) 4-Card Flush

3) Low Pair

4) 4-Card Straight

This strategy only means something on the hands that are either a 4-card straight or a 4-card flush and are also a pair. Approximately 25% of all 4-card straights and flushes fall into this category, so these hands are fairly common. This is why it is imperative these hands be played correctly. Let’s take a closer look at why you should play the hands as described above and learn how these are not close calls.

The high pair is the only sure winner in the bunch, but this is not the reason it is at the top of the chart. The determining factor is always the expected value of the hand, which is the average amount we expect to win with that hand over the long run.

Sometimes, the sure winner is not the right answer, but in this case it is. The expected value of our high pair is 1.54, which reflects the opportunities to turn this into two pair, trips, full house and quads.

Next up is the 4-card flush, which will win for us in the long run. This is not to say we will have more winning hands than losing hands. With nine opportunities to complete a flush and perhaps a few more to finish a high pair (depending on the exact makeup of the 4-card flush), we can expect to win only 20-30% of the time.

But since many of these will win with a flush, the wins will be significant. The expected value of a 4-card flush is 1.22. It will be a smidge higher if you have one or two high cards and a bit lower if you have none. If you have three high cards, you have a 3-card royal and that takes precedence over the 4-card flush, but not the high pair.

While the low pair has the exact same probabilities as the high of winding up as two pair, trips, full house or quads, the fact that it starts as a losing hand is enough to bring its expected value all the way down to 0.82. That means in the long run, this is a losing hand.

It is the second strongest losing hand (behind the relatively rare 10-J-Q-K straight, which is also the only exception to the rule I’m presenting here as you hold this 4-card straight over a low pair, which can only happen with a pair of 10’s).

The low pair is also by far the most common hand in video poker, accounting for nearly 30% of all hands.

Lastly, we have the 4-card straights. While a 4-card straight with two high cards ranks only slightly below the low pair with an expected value 0.81, it is still below it. And, it only gets worse with 4-card straights with one high card or no high cards with expected value of 0.74 and 0.68, respectively. These may not seem like big differences, but they will eat at your bankroll over time.

It would still be far better for anyone reading this to become a truly Expert Player, but any improvements in your strategy are still better than none.

Top Stories

GamingToday’s Micah Roberts went right back to the Oracle for a new Preakness pick and Jay Rood came up with his selection once he knew Union Rags was not headed to Pimlico.

An Internet gambling bill being considered by New Jersey lawmakers could allow Atlantic City’s casinos to take bets from people in other states or countries, although key details remain to be worked out.

The nation’s commercial casinos continued their slow-but-steady comeback from the recession last year, with revenues up 3 percent nationwide and jobs holding nearly steady, according to a report released Wednesday.

Revel, the $2.4 billion casino resort widely seen as Atlantic City’s best hope of survival, trailed most of its competition in its first month of operation, placing 8th out of the city’s 12 casinos.

New signs are up to direct visitors, the sidewalks have been power-washed, crosswalks have been freshly painted and 1,600 people have been hired to inaugurate the Horseshoe Casino Cleveland on Monday.