Over the past two weeks previews of the AFC and NFC have been presented, division by division, with looks at what we might expect from the 32 teams in the 2010 season.
This week, predictions and projections shall be made as to the dozen teams to make the playoffs and the two survivors that may well meet in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas next Feb. 6 in Super Bowl XLV.
At the start of every season it’s generally easy to make a case for the teams that made the playoffs the previous season to do so once again. It’s a classic case of what we remember last influencing our expectations for the future. Often it comes from a mindset that expects stability and continuity from one season to the next.
But with such a short 16 game regular season schedule, there is a very fine line between a winning season and a losing one. The talent is spread out rather evenly through the 32 NFL teams. There’s not an overwhelmingly huge gap between the NFL’s best teams and the ones at the bottom. Often, it’s the ownership, management and coaching that can make a significant difference.
Notice how some of the most stable organizations seem to be contending for the playoffs season after season, perhaps with an occasional down year, but not very many.
The fact is that there is significant turnover on a season to season basis in the composition of the NFL playoff field. Since the playoff field expanded from 10 to 12 teams in 1990, an average of 6 teams each season make the playoffs that did not make the field a season earlier. That’s a turnover rate of 50 percent.
Division realignment in 2002 changed the dynamics as the NFL went from 6 division winners and 6 Wild Cards to 8 division winners and 4 Wild Cards but the historical numbers changed little. From 2003 through 2009 there have been as few as 4 playoff repeaters (2002 to 2003) and a many as 7 (2003 to 2004). Over the past seasons the number of teams returning to the playoffs the following season have been 5, 5, 6, 5 and 6.
Thus it would make sense, in forecasting how the 2010 season will play out, to expect between 5 and 7 teams that missed the playoffs in 2009 to make them in 2010. Obviously that also means from 5 to 7 teams that made the playoffs last season will miss out this season.
Injuries have a huge impact on a team’s fortunes throughout a season, especially injuries to key players that result in missed games. Clearly quarterback injuries are the most serious but injuries that necessitate adjustments along the offensive line or in the defensive backfield also have negative consequences more often than not.
There’s no way to predict which teams will face significant injuries but that’s where ownership and management play a key role. The ability to provide roster depth enables some teams to overcome injuries better than others. And that goes back to why there are a half dozen or so franchises that consistently are in playoff contention season after season.
Let’s start in the AFC where there appear to be two division winners that are significantly better than their other three rivals.
The Chargers have won the division in each of the last four seasons and in five of the last six. With the exception of 2008 when the Chargers were sloppy for much of the season and actually tied for the division title with an 8-8 record (with
The Ravens appear to be an even stronger team in 2010 and should supplant
New England has long been the class of the AFC East and is the pick to again win the division, notwithstanding the emergence of both
The forecast here calls for
In the NFC the forecast calls for more turnover. Look for
In the NFC North both
Don’t expect the Vikes to win both games from
The NFC East is considered by many to be the best division in the NFL, if not the most competitive. Actually over the past three seasons the NFC East rates out at the second best division in terms of record against non-division foes, 76-43-1 (the AFC South is 82-38 over the same time frame).
As pointed out last week the NFC South has been a roller coaster division with the last place finisher one season winning the division title the next in six of the seven seasons since 2002’s divisional realignment. No, don’t expect
In comparing the Falcons to the Panthers the edge on offense is with
Let’s not concede the division – or even a playoff berth – to
The gutsiest of our forecasts calls for the Saints to miss the playoffs in 2010 and for both
Thus, our NFC projections have
In the AFC the call is for
The call in the NFC is for
Should this scenario somehow play out and we witness a Ravens vs. Packers Super Bowl, the call is for
Next week begins a game-by-game preview and selection for the entire NFL card which starts on Thursday, Sept. 2 with a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game in
Less than seven hours after completing the linking of Pai Gow progressive jackpots at gaming tables for all 10 Station Casinos, a Virginia man hit that progressive with a 7-card straight flush that included a joker. He won more than $200,000.
The New York Giants just completed a startling three-game run through the NFC playoff jungle with a 3-0 mark ATS. By contrast, the New England Patriots enjoyed a first-round bye and home playoff wins over underdogs Denver and Baltimore.
Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello tried to hang on with the Patriots -3 as long as he could, but finally had to give in on Thursday morning when the culmination of Giants money over the first 11 days of action became too much.
From the time we knew who would be playing in the Super Bowl, I’ve always had a lean on the Patriots to win. As great as the Giants have been on their march to the Super Bowl, I still can’t get their bad losses out of my head.



